Banks, fund managers and gold lift, whilst rare earths fall
The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) reset an intraday record, climbing to 9,109.7 points before closing at 9,068.4, as a surprisingly weak labour force report – unemployment rising to 4.5 per cent – jolted markets into pricing in a likely Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Domestic banks and real estate stocks led the charge: Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) +0.8 per cent, ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) +1.9 per cent, Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) +4.9 per cent, Mirvac (ASX: MGR) +3.5 per cent, and Stockland (ASX: SGP) +3.4 per cent all registered notable gains. The rally was also broad‑based, fund managers such as Regal Partners (ASX: RPL), L1 Capital (ASX: L1P) and GQG Partners (ASX: GQG) rose sharply, while in the materials space gold miners surged as bullion topped US$4,240/oz – Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) +8 per cent, Northern Star (ASX: NST) +1.2 per cent, Newmont (NYSE: NEM) +3.4 per cent. Conversely, earlier leaders in rare earths saw profit‑taking: Australian Rare Earths (ASX: AR3) –21.9 per cent, Australian Strategic Metals (ASX: ASM) –13 per cent, Iluka (ASX: ILU) –10.6 per cent. Several corporate headlines added spice: Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) jumped after a court blocked a US takeover cancellation; AMP (ASX: AMP) rallied on rising assets under management; Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) climbed despite soft China outlook; PolyNovo (ASX: PNOV) rose on a new CEO appointment, while DroneShield (ASX: DRO) tumbled further amid profit‑taking.
Australian market outlook
With bond markets now pricing in about a 70 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut in November, easing concerns over the domestic labour market may bolster further gains – even if the RBA holds back. The leadership of rate‑sensitive sectors (financials, real estate, gold/mining) suggests markets are expecting policy to respond. However, strength in gold and miners also signals a degree of safe‑haven hedging, indicating some caution under the surface. A sustained rally will likely require confirmation from future data (inflation, wages, consumption) rather than just one soft employment print.
Global markets and U.S. backdrop
U.S. equity markets ended lower, dragged by renewed stress in regional banking: Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ: ZION) plunged ~13 per cent after announcing a US$50 million third‑quarter loss tied to two questionable loans, and Western Alliance Bancorp (NASDAQ: WAL) fell ~10.8 per cent amidst fraud allegations. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6 per cent, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.5 per cent, and the Dow Jones fell ~302 points. The weak banking news, combined with unresolved U.S. fiscal and trade tensions, weighed heavily on sentiment.
| Australian Indices | Daily % | Weekly % | 1 Month % | 3 Month % | 1 Year % |
| ASX 200 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| Financials | 1.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 4.1 | 16.7 |
| Resources | 0.5 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 21.1 | 16.5 |
| Information Technology | -0.6 | -1.3 | -2.6 | 0.8 | 17.7 |
| Global Indices | Daily % | Weekly % | 1 Month % | 3 Month % | 1 Year % |
| US 500 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 18.7 |
| Europe | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 22.0 |
| Japan | 1.4 | -0.6 | 1.8 | 12.1 | 21.6 |
| China top 50 | 0.9 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 36.3 |
| India top 50 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 | -2.4 | 0.2 |
| Fixed Interest | Daily % | Weekly % | 1 Month % | 3 Month % | 1 Year % |
| Australian Treasury Bond | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 5.3 |
| Australian Corporate Bond | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 6.1 |
| US Treasury | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Cash | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.2 |
| Commodities & Crypto | Daily % | Weekly % | 1 Month % | 3 Month % | 1 Year % |
| Gold | 1.7 | 5.4 | 16.5 | 26.2 | 60.1 |
| Silver | 1.5 | 6.6 | 26.2 | 38.5 | 69.1 |
| Crude Oil | 0.0 | -5.2 | -9.0 | -8.4 | -6.0 |
| Bitcoin | -0.3 | -7.8 | -1.3 | -6.9 | 69.5 |